Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Gambia
Official GDP figures show that the Gambian economy exceeded expectations last year. Indications are that this year will be no different. The economy grew by 5.3% in 2023, supported by sound performances in the agricultural, telecommunications, and construction sectors. Accordingly, we have revised our 2024 growth projection higher to 5.1% from 4.4%. The all-important tourism sector continues to recover, but international arrivals were still down 22.9% in 2023 against 2019 figures. Positively, the tourism figures for Q1 2024 show a more measured 8.2% q/q drop compared with Q1 2019. We expect real GDP growth to average just 3.5% p.a. over the medium term as the boon from the tourism recovery tails off.
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