Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Gabon
The Gabonese economy struggled over the 2016-2021 period as the oil sector suffered a string of external shocks. Real GDP growth averaged 1.2% p.a. over this period. This trend reversed in 2022 after Russia invaded Ukraine, resulting in a squeeze on global oil supply and prompting a surge in oil prices. This, coupled with higher domestic oil output, caused real GDP growth in Gabon to reach 2.8% last year. Production is set to rise further over the near term and this, along with elevated, albeit easing, oil prices will boost the economy in the coming years. We forecast real GDP growth of 2.9% for 2023 before it will inch gradually higher to a peak of 3.6% by 2026.
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