Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Eswatini
We forecast that economic growth in Eswatini will slow significantly to around 2.4% in 2022 and 1.9% in 2023, from an estimated 6.0% in 2021. The quasi-enclave's economic and developmental prospects are weighed down by several internal and exogenous factors. Locally, fiscal constraints, inadequate private sector participation, and the risk of a resurgence in anti-monarchy protests limit growth below potential. This is coupled with a lack of sectoral diversity and pervasive levels of poverty and unemployment. On the international front, GDP growth is constrained by a high reliance on volatile Southern African Customs Union (Sacu) revenue receipts, a limited base of trading partners, weak growth in South Africa, and the unfolding conflict in eastern Europe.
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