Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - El Salvador
We’ve cut our 2025 GDP growth forecast for El Salvador by 0.1 ppt to 1.9%. President Bukele's plan to reduce expenditures through layoffs and decreased transfers will weigh on household expenditures and government consumption next year. Although exports of goods and services, mainly tourism, are still booming this year amid improving security, they will likely cool to nearly zero growth in 2025, reflecting base effects from previous years. We also revised down our 2024 GDP estimate by 0.4 ppts to 2.1% due to slower-than-expected remittances. Our forecasts are lower than the consensus for both years.
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