Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Cuba
We cut Cuba’s 2025 GDP growth forecast by 1.6ppts to 1.9%, following an estimated 0.9% contraction this year. Disruptions at the country’s largest thermoelectric plant and reduced fuel shipments from Russia and Venezuela caused widespread blackouts, while Hurricane Rafael strained the already neglected infrastructure. In turn, we don't expect pre-pandemic output levels to be reached until 2029, with risks tilted to the downside due to Cuba’s vulnerability to weather disruptions, ongoing brain drain, and limited economic diversification.
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