Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Cuba
We lowered our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Cuba by 1ppt to 2%. Preliminary data flashed a contraction of 1.4% in 2023, implying that economic output is still 10% below pre-pandemic levels. The exodus of nearly 500,000 Cubans in the last two years, shortages in basic services and food, stubborn inflation, and US sanctions have harmed the country's productivity and paralyzed key sectors of the economy. We expect that a delayed recovery in tourism activity and higher agricultural exports could support stronger GDP growth of 3.5% next year.
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