Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Congo Republic

Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Congo Republic

Congo's average oil production declined to 259,000 bpd in the first nine months of the year from 275,300 bpd in the same period in 2023. We now project a sharper 4.0% reduction in Congo's average oil output for 2024 (-3.1% estimated previously), and an additional 3.7% decline is expected in 2025. Lower oil output will weigh on economic growth. Brent crude oil prices have also fallen more than anticipated in 2024, now forecast to average $80.0pb, compared to our earlier projection of $83.6pb. Although global oil prices have rebounded from the multi-year lows reached in September, this is likely temporary, and prices are expected to resume their downward trend due to strong production in the Americas. Furthermore, increasing sales of new energy vehicles in China will continue to dampen oil demand. We forecast Brent crude to average $72.6pb in 2025, softer than our projection of $77.8pb just six months ago.