We forecast the Comorian economy to grow by 4.1% in 2025, continuing its decent economic performance over the past few years. Short- to medium-term economic growth is anticipated to be primarily driven by real private consumption. We have raised our forecast for average real GDP growth between 2026 and 2030 by 0.6 ppt to 3.8% p.a. in line with the IMF. Downside risks include the island nation's ongoing inflationary pressures and trade tariffs being imposed globally, creating uncertainty. We have marginally lowered our growth projections for this year's real exports and real imports to reflect the increased global trade uncertainty. Climate-related shocks are still ever-present as a possible downside risk to economic growth.
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