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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Colombia

Publisher Oxford Economics
Published Jan 28, 2026
Length 9 Pages
SKU # OFE20872817

Description

We raised our 2026 GDP growth forecast for Colombia by 0.5ppts to 3.5% y/y, 0.7ppts above the consensus. We expect strong consumer spending growth this year of 3.4% y/y due to the surprise 23% minimum wage increase and delayed government fiscal tightening. A historically low unemployment rate and 2025's strong consumption growth under the accumulated minimum wage rises of President Gustavo Petro mean we expect the minimum wage rise to impulse consumer spending.

Table of Contents

9 Pages
Colombia: Minimum wage rise increases growth, inflation, and rates
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term outlook
Key drivers of our short-term forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
Risk warnings
What to watch out for
Exposure to key global risks
Debt sustainability analysis
Long-term prospects
Alternative long-run scenarios
Background
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments
Economic policy and politics

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