Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Chad

Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Chad

Foreign direct investment in Chad surged by 48% y/y in 2023, largely directed at new oil and gas exploration and infrastructure. However, ongoing legal disputes between existing oil operators and the government, and uncertainty around the new political leadership – following presidential elections in May 2024 – could prevent another surge in private oil investment growth in the short run. Since June, the country experienced nationwide flooding, causing damage to infrastructure and crops. Floods led to the displacement of households who lost their homes. Given that approximately 70% of the workforce is employed in the agricultural sector, a slowdown in consumption spending for 2024 is expected. Additional risks to business activity growth include weak private investment, a volatile security environment and adverse weather conditions that impede agricultural production. With that said, we lowered our real GDP growth estimate for 2024 to 2.4% from 3.2%.