Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Central African Republic
The Central African Republic (CAR) remains entrenched in a complex web of conflict, regulatory uncertainty, and fuel shortages. Yet, despite all the difficulties, the economy is holding on thanks to a surge in gold prices, a rebound in timber production, and support from the IMF. Given targeted measures from the IMF and base effects, we envisage a stronger economic growth rate of 1.3% in 2025, up from a meagre 0.9% forecast in 2024. Downside risks to our short- to medium-term outlook include the 2025 presidential elections, declining mineral production, and climate change.
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