IMF support, favourable commodity price movements, and improved weather conditions are sustaining Burkina Faso despite ongoing political instability. Considering these factors, we forecast the economy to expand by 3.6% this year, up from an estimated 3.5% in 2024 and 3.0% in 2023. Our projection is below the IMF’s 4.3% forecast, as we believe the country's security situation will constrain stronger growth. Violence has spread across most regions and intensified along the southern border. The country remains under interim rule, led by Captain Ibrahim Traoré since his coup in September 2022.
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