Preliminary activity indicators for Q1 hint at a continued slowdown in Brazil's GDP growth from Q4. We haven't changed our below-consensus forecast of 1.2% for 2025, but risks now tilt to the downside. Manufacturing and services output growth remained frail in January, and sentiment data for February don't show much of an improvement. Monetary policy remains restrictive as the Central Bank of Brazil (BCB) tightens to tame high inflation.
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