Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Brazil

The sharp activity contraction in December 2024 forced us to pull our expectations of an economic slowdown forward and cut our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Brazil by 0.6ppts to 1.2%. A smaller carryover from 2024, a much tighter monetary policy stance, and the beginning of a deterioration in labour market conditions justify our below-consensus view on growth this year and next.


Brazil: Weak activity data in December bodes ill for 2025 growth
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term outlook
Key drivers of our short-term forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
Risk warnings
What to watch out for
Global scenario analysis
Long-term prospects
Background
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments and structure of trade
Politics

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