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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Brazil

Publisher Oxford Economics
Published Oct 23, 2025
Length 9 Pages
SKU # OFE20535930

Description

Since last month, we've nudged our 2025 GDP growth forecast down marginally by 0.1ppt to 2.3%, to reflect a more frontloaded correction in domestic demand in July, with a lacklustre rebound in August. Our Q3 growth estimate stands at -0.4% q/q, but the monthly carry-over implies risks are tilted to the downside. Our 2026 growth projection is unchanged at 1.8%, buoyed by a boost to labour disposable income and thus household consumption from Lula's new income tax exemptions bill, approved by the lower house a few weeks ago.

Table of Contents

9 Pages
Brazil: Income tax reform to support consumption next year
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term outlook
Key drivers of our short-term forecast
Debt sustainability analysis
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
Risk warnings
What to watch out for
Global scenario analysis
Long-term prospects
Alternative long-run scenarios
Background
Economic developments
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments and structure of trade
Politics

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