Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Botswana
Botswana’s diamond industry has continued to struggle after a poor start to the year: it contracted by 6.5% q/q in Q2, after a sharp decline of 16.6% q/q in Q1 2024. Recent diamond sales and export data have also revealed a concerning downward trend, as the diamond mining industry deals with the increased competition from lab-grown diamonds. Accounting for this competition, following a 3 million carat reduction in its 2024 production guidance in April, De Beers slashed its projected output by a further 3 million carats in July. As a result, we forecast Botswana's overall diamond production to decline by 19.8% in 2024, compared to our previous estimate of a decline of 10.9%. Lower diamond output will weigh on Botswana's fiscal balance and the current account in 2024.
- Botswana: Diamond recession to lower economic output in 2024
- Forecast overview
- Recent developments
- Short-term outlook
- Key drivers of our short-term forecast
- Economic risk
- Economic risk evaluation
- Background
- Economic development
- Structure of the economy
- Balance of payments
- Policy and politics
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