Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Argentina

We kept our 2025 GDP growth forecast at 3.6% but lowered it by 0.7ppts to 3.1% for 2026. This adjustment is driven by base effects from the strong rebound in private demand during Q3 2024, along with positive results from high-frequency indicators in Q4 2024, instead of the gradual recovery we anticipated. Our forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are below the consensus.


Argentina: Lifting capital controls is a looming risk
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term growth outlook
Key drivers of our short-term forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
Risk warnings
What to watch out for
Exposure to key global risk scenarios
Long-term prospects
Background
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments and structure of trade
Policy
Politics

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