Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets
We have raised our GDP forecast for Aruba to a 1.4% y/y expansion from a 0.1% y/y decline expected previously. The ongoing recovery of the tourism sector and a stable inflation rate have prevented an economic contraction. In the near term, we expect the economy will grow by around 1.4%-1.5% y/y as the tourism sector grows due to new investment and lower inflation. However, downside risks to consumer spending and recession fears are a headwind for tourism, which will impact Aruba's economy.
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