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Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - Taiwan

Publisher Oxford Economics
Published Jan 27, 2026
Length 9 Pages
SKU # OFE20872828

Description

We maintain our forecast that Taiwan's GDP will grow by 4% in 2026 but note some upside risks to the near-term outlook. These risks involve the US lowering Taiwan's reciprocal tariffs to 15% and agreeing to waive potential sectoral tariffs on semiconductor imports from Taiwan, subject to investment commitments by Taiwanese firms in the US. Our US team has raised their 2026 GDP growth forecast to reflect a solid AI tailwind, which could continuously support Taiwan's exports in the near term.

Table of Contents

9 Pages
Taiwan: Revised US trade deal adds upside risk to growth
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term outlook
Key drivers of our short-term forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
Risk warnings
What to watch out for
Exposure to key global risks
Long-term prospects
Alternative long-run scenarios
Background
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments and structure of trade
Politics

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