Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - South Korea

We've downgraded our 2025 GDP growth forecast for South Korea by 0.3ppts to 1.6% y/y. Growth momentum in Q4 2024 stayed soft at 0.1% q/q sa, and consumption is set to recover more gradually than we had anticipated. Loan growth slowed down to a nine-month low in December, too. That said, last month's unemployment spike will likely normalise in January.


South Korea: Unemployment spike temporary, but growth will stay soft
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term outlook
Key drivers of our short-term forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
Risk warnings
What to watch out for
Exposure to key global risks
Long-term prospects
Background
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments and structure of trade
Policy
Politics

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