Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - South Korea

Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - South Korea



We've kept our 2025 GDP growth forecast for South Korea at 1.9%. We see risks from the recent political turmoil and will adjust our outlook after the Constitutional Court decides on the impeachment motion. Domestic uncertainty and global trade policies will likely weigh on investment, while higher US growth might support exports next year. We've maintained our 2024 GDP growth forecast at 2.2%, although our nowcasts indicate 2.1% when adding sentiment data.


South Korea: High political uncertainty adds risk to our outlook
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term outlook
Key drivers of our short-term forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
Risk warnings
What to watch out for
Exposure to key global risks
Long-term prospects
Background
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments and structure of trade
Policy
Politics

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