Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - South Korea

Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - South Korea



We kept our 2025 GDP growth forecast for South Korea at 1.9%. Under President Trump, higher investment in the US and a strong US dollar will provide a boost to exports next year. However, economic policy uncertainty will undermine South Korea's investment recovery. We trimmed our medium-term GDP forecasts due to our assumption about targeted tariffs being introduced in 2026. Blanket tariffs pose downside risks, but we believe that is unlikely.


South Korea: Tariffs will tame export growth in the medium term
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term outlook
Key drivers of our short-term forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
Risk warnings
What to watch out for
Exposure to key global risks
Long-term prospects
Background
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments and structure of trade
Policy
Politics

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