We kept our 2025 GDP growth forecast for South Korea at 1.9%. Under President Trump, higher investment in the US and a strong US dollar will provide a boost to exports next year. However, economic policy uncertainty will undermine South Korea's investment recovery. We trimmed our medium-term GDP forecasts due to our assumption about targeted tariffs being introduced in 2026. Blanket tariffs pose downside risks, but we believe that is unlikely.
South Korea: Tariffs will tame export growth in the medium term