In light of the latest events, we have increased our probability of a "bad" ceasefire for Ukraine – one that leaves Ukraine without strong security guarantees and vulnerable to future re-escalation from Russia – to 50% from 20% previously. Under this scenario, there is a short-term "peace dividend" to investor and consumer confidence. But a re-escalation risk premium persists in the medium- to long-term, hindering Ukraine's recovery, reconstruction, and return of refugees.
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