Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - Japan

Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - Japan



We've adopted our "limited Trump scenario" as our baseline outlook for Japan. We've upgraded our GDP growth outlooks by 0.1ppt to 0.7% in 2026 and 0.6% in 2027 due to better export prospects. We believe the benefits generated by a stronger US economy under fiscal stimulus will outweigh the wedge from assumed 10% tariffs on Japan's autos and metals exports to the US.


Japan: Targeted tariffs will have a limited impact on growth
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term outlook
Key drivers of our short-term forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
Risk warnings
What to watch out for
Exposure to key global risks
Long-term prospects
Background
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments and structure of trade
Policy
Economic policy

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