Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - Hong Kong SAR

Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - Hong Kong SAR



We think Hong Kong's GDP will grow by 2% y/y in 2025, moderating from the estimated 2.5% expansion this year. While our expectations for growth next year are weak, possible front-loading of exports before US tariffs kick in add a material upside risk to our outlook. A near-term surge in consumption also remains a possibility.


Hong Kong SAR: Spending has provided a boost lately, but growth will still be soft
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term outlook
Key drivers of our short-term forecast
Risk warnings
What to watch out for
Exposure to key global risks
Long-term prospects
Background
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments and structure of trade
Policy
Politics

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