Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - China
We maintain our 2025 GDP growth forecast of 4.4% for China, taking into consideration potential downside risks in the economy and the impact of the near-term policy stimulus. We remain concerned about the deflationary risks in the economy and have downgraded our 2025 average inflation forecast to 0.4% y/y from 1.6% prior. Core inflation, which is a better gauge of domestic demand-supply dynamics, is expected to contract mildly in H1 2025.
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