Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific
We expect the drivers of economic growth this year to shift from the export-driven manufacturing sector to services. The move to living with Covid will support stronger domestic demand this year and next, even though we expect higher inflation and business costs to dampen the recovery somewhat. The recovery in tourism over the next two years will further boost growth. However, the downside risks to our GDP forecasts have risen sharply. Covid lockdowns in China will weigh on global demand and add pressure on already strained global supply chains. As such, we will be reviewing our current GDP growth forecasts of 4.8% in 2022 and 6.4% in 2023 following the planned downward revisions to China in our May baseline.
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