Analysis by Region - Africa - Tunisia

Analysis by Region - Africa - Tunisia



The longer Tunisia is cut off from international capital markets, the more desperate authorities are becoming to finance the fiscal deficit. In a move that will raise concerns with the IMF, the Parliament passed a law that will force the central bank to finance the country's fiscal deficit in 2025, to the tune of $2.2bn. This follows an injection of about $3.0bn from the central bank for the 2024 budget. However, the story does not end here: in October, MPs proposed a bill that will remove the central bank's exclusive right to determine interest rates and foreign exchange policy. Developments over the past couple of months have raised the country's risk profile.


Tunisia: Central bank independence in jeopardy
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term forecast
Key drivers of our short-term forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
Background
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments
Policy and politics

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