Analysis by Region - Africa - Nigeria
While the war between Russia and Ukraine has increased international uncertainty, the Nigerian economy remains undeterred. The non-oil economy's strong performance persisted in the first quarter of the year, as the PMI moderated only slightly to 55.0 in Q1 2022, from 55.2 points in Q4 2021, when real GDP expanded by 9.7% q-o-q. Furthermore, the hydrocarbons sector has benefitted from elevated oil prices, and these gains should compound as production recovers throughout the year. Nevertheless, rising inflation, localised fuel shortages, and liquidity concerns serve as notable short-term risks. Overall, our economic outlook remains unchanged, and we expect that real GDP will expand by 3.4% in 2022 and 2.9% in 2023.
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