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Analysis by Region - Africa - Libya

Publisher Oxford Economics
Published Mar 23, 2026
Length 6 Pages
SKU # OFE21077179

Description

We expect Libya's GDP growth to remain robust at 8.2% this year, before slowing down to 3.2% in 2027 and 3.0% in 2028. This is a downward revision from our previous forecast of 9.4% in 2026 and 5.8% in 2027. The most immediate energy impact of the US–Israel war with Iran is the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which around 20 mbpd of oil normally flows. We expect Brent crude oil prices to rise and remain high in the short term due to uncertainty about oil supply.

Table of Contents

6 Pages
Libya: Oil price rally boosts external and fiscal accounts
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short
term outlook
Key drivers of our short
term forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
Background
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments
Policy and politics

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