Algeria's oil output remains below historical levels due to the country’s agreement to cut oil output within the Opec+ group. The group extended cuts through Q1 due to lower-than-expected global oil demand, but it could be even longer if the group again misses its demand forecast for the year. If Algeria's oil output returns to normal levels beyond Q1, even if only gradually, this would be positive. Nevertheless, our projection of softer Brent crude prices will likely overshadow the rise in output, weakening the current account and ultimately economic growth.
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