Analysis by Region - Africa
General Brice Oligui Nguema manoeuvred to consolidate power since the bloodless coup d'état in August 2023. The draft constitution outlined various changes that will strengthen the position of Gen Oligui, who has his sights set on the presidential post. The transitional government has outlined a clear transition timeline, including scheduling an election for August 2025. Gen Oligui continues to enjoy strong support from the Gabonese population and the junta, which works in his favour: members of Parliament proposed various amendments to the draft constitution, thereby effectively denouncing the concentration of power in the presidency. Despite opposition, we expect Gen Oligui to greenlight the draft constitution by end-2024 without implementing the proposed amendments.
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