Analysis by Region - Africa
Momentum in economic activity in Uganda remained robust during Q2 2023, mainly supported by the services and industry sectors of the economy. Available data indicates that growth started on a high note in Q3 2023, driven by improvements in exports, loan advancements to the private sector, construction activity, and manufacturing production. We maintain our view that cooling inflation and a recent cut to key policy rates should support consumers in H2 2023. However, current exchange rate volatility and global soft commodity price developments could place renewed upward pressure on inflation. That being said, we expect interest rates to be left unchanged for the remainder of the year and annual inflation to average 5.4% in 2023.
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