Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone
This week, we finally received business and consumer surveys for March, the first to be released since Russia invaded Ukraine. Unsurprisingly, the drop was widespread. The PMIs surprised with their relative resilience, recording only a small fall, but other survey and high-frequency data suggest the hit to output will be larger than the flash PMIs suggest. In contrast, the fallout in consumer confidence was massive. The results were consistent with changes we made to our updated baseline, released earlier this week, which now sees much slower growth and higher inflation this year in the eurozone.
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