Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets
We have cut our aggregate 2023 GDP growth forecast for emerging markets (EMs) by 0.1ppt to 3.9%, following a series of upgrades in recent months. This mainly reflects a downgrade to our outlook for China, which offset several improvements elsewhere. That said, the July PMI surveys showed the number of countries above the neutral 50-mark has shrunk and we expect a greater drag from past monetary tightening on activity in H2. We have kept our 2024 GDP growth projection at 3.8%.
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