Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets

Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets

Emerging market (EM) import prices on average have risen 13% since the start of the year, due in part to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. As a result, we expect the median EM trade balance to improve slightly, by 0.7% in GDP (Chart 1). While commodity producers will benefit from the surge in export prices, the policy trilemma of rising inflation, declines in GDP growth, and fiscal pressures will be a source of acute pain to importers of commodities.


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