The labor market remains exceptionally tight. Nonfarm payroll growth downshifted in June but held above its average pre-pandemic pace. The unemployment rate inched down to a historically low level and wage growth was stubbornly elevated. We expect more job gains in Q3 before the economy succumbs to the pressures of tighter lending standards, past Fed rate hikes, and elevated interest rates as it endures a mild recession in Q4 and the beginning of 2024.
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