While the large base effects that helped pull down headline CPI inflation to 3% in June are behind us, a downshift in shelter inflation, falling auto prices, and a gradual easing in wage growth should mean better news for core inflation through the second half of the year. The June CPI report is not enough to stop Fed officials from following through with a rate hike later this month, but it does support our baseline forecast that the July hike could be the last.
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