Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
The April inflation figures released this week provided support for the Fed pausing rate hikes as it confirms rents are now rising at a slower pace than earlier in the year and services inflation excluding shelter - aka "supercore" inflation - eased. Together with the rise in jobless claims and the tightening in lending standards, we expect the Fed to remain on hold in June. That said, wage and price pressures are still above levels consistent with 2% inflation, and this will prevent the Fed from declaring victory. This is one reason we believe market expectations for rate cuts this year are premature.
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