Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Incoming data signal the economy ended the first quarter on a weak note, with consumers less willing to spend, labor market conditions softening, and industrial sector output on a negative track. We believe Q1 will end up being the best quarter this year for the economy as tighter credit conditions and elevated interest rates slow GDP growth to a crawl in Q2 and spark a recession in the second half of the year. The weaker economy will ease price pressures, but not enough for the Fed to achieve its 2% inflation target anytime soon.
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