Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
The Fed told us this week that, while it slowed the pace of rate hikes, it will continue to raise rates until it is confident inflation is returning to its 2% target. Though the Fed is still aiming for a soft landing, their projections tell a different story. In fact, the Summary of Economic Projections calls for a rise in the unemployment rate that hasn't occurred without the economy falling into a recession. While the economy is carrying some momentum into 2023, we continue to forecast a mild recession starting in Q2 and the risks are roughly balanced.
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