Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Hopes that peak inflation was in the rear-view mirror were squashed after CPI inflation rose to a new 40-year high in May. The pinch from high inflation is real, but strong consumer spending and labor market fundamentals will keep the economy in expansion mode, with GDP set to grow 3% this quarter and 2.6% for the full year. We see growth downshifting to 1.8% in 2023, and if inflation does not cool sufficiently, more aggressive Fed tightening risks a harder landing.
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