Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
It was a volatile week in the Treasury market – and in financial markets generally – but in the end, yields finished the week little changed except for at the front end of the curve. Two-year yields were 3bps higher on the week and the 10-year yield was 1bp lower, flattening the 2s/10s curve by about 4bps to 20bps. The Treasury market looked past the negative GDP headline print and focused instead on the inflationary aspects of the week's data, including the employment cost index, which showed wages advancing at the fastest pace since 1985. The data leave the Fed firmly on track to raise rates by 50bps at its upcoming meeting. Given that a rate hike of that magnitude is widely expected, market participants may focus more on any signals about the pace of further rate hikes after next week's meeting.
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