We expect UK GDP will grow by 1% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026, unchanged from last month. Recent data have supported our view that the H2 2024 slowdown was exaggerated by residual seasonality in the GDP data. Though we expect the pace of quarterly growth to be stronger this year than in H2 2024, growth is likely to be slightly below trend due to tighter fiscal policy, the lagged effects of past interest rate hikes, and heightened global trade policy uncertainty.
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