Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United States

We cut our 2025 GDP growth forecast for the US by 0.4ppts to 2% to reflect the weaker start to the year, adjustments to our tariff assumptions, and the relentless policy uncertainty. We raised our forecast for the unemployment rate due to the large reduction in federal employment.


US: Ongoing uncertainty is suffocating the economy
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term outlook
Key drivers of our short-term forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
Risk warnings
What to watch out for
Exposure to key global risks
Long-term prospects
Alternative long-run scenarios
Background
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Policy
Politics

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