The economy is doing well, but it will remain a bifurcated one. We forecast real GDP in the US will increase by 2.6% this year and 2.7% in 2026, which we think is around the economy’s short-run potential growth rate. We've raised our projection for real consumer spending growth for this year by 0.1ppt to 2.9% to reflect the better trajectory at the beginning of 2025. We've lowered our forecast for imports growth by 1ppt to 6.2% due to less frontloading ahead of inventories than we previously anticipated.
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