Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United Arab Emirates

Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United Arab Emirates



We downgraded our 2025 GDP growth forecast for the UAE to 4.2% from 4.5%, reflecting our revised assumption that the reversal of production cuts will be delayed, likely starting in Q3 2025. The adjustment comes amid an oil price dip, fuelled by expectations of supply surpluses and China’s slow recovery, despite stimulus efforts. Oil production figures for November reflect this trend, with supply rising slightly, surpassing October’s total and the target.


United Arab Emirates : Slower increase in oil production expected in 2025
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term outlook
Key drivers of our short-term forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
Risk warnings
What to watch out for
Exposure to key global risks
Background
Economic development
Policy and politics
Structure of the economy
Structure of trade

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