Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United Kingdom
We continue to forecast UK GDP growth of 1.4% in 2025 and 1.7% in 2026. Though we expect the Bank of England to steadily cut the policy rate next year, tightening fiscal policy and the lagged impact of past interest rate hikes on households will be powerful headwinds to activity.
UK: Tight policy settings will weigh on growth in 2025