Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United Kingdom
We've cut our 2025 GDP growth forecast for the UK by 0.1ppt to 1.4% but have upgraded our 2026 forecast by 0.1ppt to 1.7%. The small downgrade to 2025 reflects the carryover effect of softer-than-expected data for late-2024, while the upgrade to 2026 is due to the policy changes in the Budget. We now expect UK growth to rely more heavily on government consumption, with the outlooks for consumer spending and business investment slightly weaker than before.