Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United Kingdom

Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United Kingdom



We've cut our 2025 GDP growth forecast for the UK by 0.1ppt to 1.4% but have upgraded our 2026 forecast by 0.1ppt to 1.7%. The small downgrade to 2025 reflects the carryover effect of softer-than-expected data for late-2024, while the upgrade to 2026 is due to the policy changes in the Budget. We now expect UK growth to rely more heavily on government consumption, with the outlooks for consumer spending and business investment slightly weaker than before.


UK: Budget has mixed effects on the outlook
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term outlook
Key drivers of our short-term forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
Risk warnings
What to watch out for
Exposure to key global risks
Long-term prospects
Background
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments and structure of trade
Policy
Politics

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