Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United Arab Emirates
We maintain our forecast for the UAE of 4.5% growth in its non-oil economy this year. Plus, we expect its overall GDP will rise to 3.7%. In its latest World Economic Outlook, the International Monetary Fund upgraded its GDP growth forecasts for the UAE to 4.0% for 2024 and 5.1% for 2025. While we share this optimistic outlook, we are slightly more cautious given the PMI hit a three-year low of 53.8 in September and signalling an ease in non-oil growth, alongside the pace of oil sector recovery. Still, we expect production oil production levels will ramp up significantly over the next three years.
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