Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United States
We continue to forecast GDP in the US will grow by 2.6% in 2025, following an estimated 2.8% expansion this year. The adjustments we made to our US outlook this month were concentrated in trade and the US dollar because of expectations that imports will be front-loaded to boost inventories ahead of tariffs. We continue to believe the economy will grow by around its short-run potential rate next year, but uncertainty will remain higher than normal given the change in administration.
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